簡單估值法 預測未來五年價格

以招行為例，預測未來五年價格，五年後再看看是否去到 $44.8

EPS = 1.8 (This year's estimated PE)
IR = 20% (Average EPS growth per year)
PE = 10 (Assume no more growth)

Current price = EPS * PE = 18
EPS after 5 year = EPS5 = EPS * (1+IR)^5 = 4.48
Price after 5 year = EPS5 * PE = 44.8
price increase per year = 44.8-18/5 = 5.36

2010: 18
2011: 23.36
2012: 28.72
2013: 34.08
2014: 39.44
2015: 44.80